Vol. 21 · No. 1 · Issue 66 · Spring 2003

Robert Rohrschneider and Dieter Fuchs

Download full article (135 KB) [subscribers only]

Abstract

Most explanations for the red-green victory in the 2002 election refer to two issues that emerged in the final months of the campaign: the Iraq crisis and the flood in eastern Germany. The surprise announcement by President Bush to dramatically increase pressure on Iraq, including a possible invasion, put this issue squarely into the center of the election campaign. This issue emerged at the onset of the hot campaign phase, taking parties and candidates by surprise. Chancellor Schröder quickly and emphatically ruled out the partici-pation of German troops under any circumstances. His policy may have attracted a considerable number of voters who favored a more conciliatory stance towards Iraq. For instance, eastern Germans, many of whom still remember the anti-American stances of the socialist government, may have felt comfortable with an uncompromising antiwar stance and thus supported the SPD in the end, despite this party's failure to deliver on its economic promises. And voters who sympathize with the peace movement in postwar western Germany may have become mobilized in support of the Green party. In turn, the largest flood in 500 years may have also provided Chancellor Schröder with an opportunity to shore up his support among eastern voters. By all accounts, he met the leadership expectations of voters by quickly promising financial aid to reconstruct those eastern regions devastated by the flood.